According to a 2023 McKinsey survey, 78% of business leaders reported facing more challenging negotiations than they did five years ago, with 42% citing "unpredictability" as their biggest obstacle.

This article is based on the insights Bruna Fell Lautert, shared from her conversations with two senior executives.

The "Crying Wolf" Phenomenon

"Your counterparty will use the current unsettled situation to ask for something, even if they don't need to."

This quote from one of Bruna's clients perfectly captures what many negotiators are encountering with increasing frequency. It's the "crying wolf" tactic - an age-old strategy that's found new life in our era of genuine disruptions.

The pandemic, inflation, and global conflicts have created legitimate challenges, but they've also provided convenient excuses for those looking to gain leverage. Learning to distinguish between real constraints and tactical manoeuvres has never been more crucial - something I wish I'd learned during the negotiation training I attended early in my career, which focused more on technique than context.

Wisdom from the Trenches

Let's dive into the insights Bruna gathered from two executives who navigate these complexities daily:

Preparation Creates Confidence

Brenda Branco, Commercial Director at VEM Conveniência, doesn't mince words: "Preparation is everything when it comes to negotiation."

As someone representing large corporations, Brenda emphasizes that diligent preparation - gathering background facts, data, and numbers - provides the security and clarity needed to navigate high-stakes discussions. It facilitates internal alignment on ranges, opening offers, and breaking points.

"Preparation also helps us try to understand the counterparty's mindset," she notes. "What is valuable to them? Exercising scenarios and understanding how they will position themselves, and what our alternative paths are."

Brenda cautions against letting a sense of fairness influence either preparation or execution. This resonates with me - I've walked away from negotiations feeling like I'd given away too much because I was striving for "fairness" rather than optimal outcomes.

"With good preparation, we must act appropriately, with an open position compatible with our goals and without yielding to unreasonable last-minute requests," she advises. "Avoiding the influence of fairness helps prevent feelings of frustration and exploitation by the end of the negotiation."

Her conclusion? "Negotiations with good preparation and appropriate behavior lead to mature dialogues, good deals, and long-lasting relationships." Simple yet profound.

The Three Pillars of Negotiation Mindset

Milena Trentadue, Head of Commercial Deployment at Philip Morris International, shares a perspective that's both grounded and forward-thinking.

"A fundamental rule in any negotiation is that it is never personal," she begins. While this might seem obvious, it's easy to forget when economic pressures mount. I've been guilty of this myself - empathizing so much with a struggling supplier that I conceded points I shouldn't have.

Milena identifies three pillars to create the right mindset before entering negotiations:

1. Be Attentive

   "Every organization faces pressure to cut costs and improve performance," Milena observes. What appears similar on the surface often has crucial differences underneath.

   She recommends looking beyond obvious challenges to understand organizational shifts and identify overlooked influencers. Has there been a recent leadership change? Is there someone with prior success in a new role? These details can reveal true priorities and potential weaknesses.

   I remember attending a negotiation training courses where we practiced these observation skills through role-play scenarios. The instructors would plant subtle clues about organizational dynamics, rewarding those who picked up on them. Those exercises have paid dividends throughout my career.

2. Be Bold

   "There may be a tendency to hold back or be cautious during sensitive times," Milena notes. "However, applying the concept of opening extreme offers is still necessary."

   Being bold means stating your position clearly and early, maintaining clarity about deal-breakers, and setting an appropriate tone. This doesn't mean being rigid or insulting, but rather open and transparent to create space for reciprocity.

3. Be Creative

   "Simple cost savings alone will not suffice in credible strategic partnerships," Milena emphasizes. Satisfaction comes in many forms, and effective negotiators look beyond obvious variables.

   She suggests creating value propositions that address broader organizational demands - like labor savings, efficiency, or shared resources focused on diversity and inclusion. This demonstrates investment in the relationship's future and can bridge gaps in more traditional areas.

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Navigating Uncertainty: A Practical Framework

Benjamin Franklin's wisdom still rings true: "By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail." At The Gap Partnership (where Bruna works), they say ninety percent of negotiation is preparation and planning, while ten percent is execution.

So how should we prepare during uncertain times? While there's no one-size-fits-all solution, here's a framework I've adapted from Bruna's insights and my own experience:

1. Narrow Your Focus

   Many companies have too many priorities, which means they effectively have none. The word "priority" literally means "the condition of being regarded as more important." Be ruthless about limiting your negotiation priorities to a maximum of three.

   Ask yourself: If I could only achieve one thing in this negotiation, what would it be? What could I live without? What's my walk-away point?

2. Develop Your Skillset

   Recognizing tactics like "crying wolf" requires both knowledge and practice. In a recent Forbes survey, 67% of executives said they wish they'd invested more in negotiation skills earlier in their careers.

   Consider formal training courses that emphasize both strategy and behavioural competence. The return on investment can be substantial - one study found that companies that invested in negotiation training saw a 21% average improvement in contract outcomes within six months.

3. Plan for Multiple Scenarios

   Don't just prepare for your ideal outcome. Ask:

   • What does success look like?

   • What constraints might arise?

   • What's Plan B if my initial approach fails?

   • What triggers would cause me to switch plans?

4. Ask Better Questions

   The quality of your preparation depends on the quality of your questions:

   • What specifically delivers value to both sides?

   • How has the counterparty's situation changed recently?

   • What risks exist, and how can they be mitigated?

   • What's happening in their industry that might affect their priorities?

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Conclusion

The insights from Brenda and Milena remind us that while negotiation tactics evolve, the importance of thorough preparation remains constant. As uncertainty increases, so does the value of having a structured approach to preparation.

Think of it this way: Would you rather improvise a speech to 500 people or take time to prepare your remarks? Would you rather take an exam without studying or after thorough review? Negotiation is no different.

Remember that preparation isn't just about gathering facts and figures. It's about understanding motivations, anticipating tactics, and developing the confidence to respond effectively when the unexpected occurs.

Your Next Steps

If you want to improve your negotiation outcomes in uncertain times:

1. Block dedicated preparation time before your next negotiation - at least 2-3 hours for important discussions

2. Identify one negotiation training course to enhance your skills this quarter

3. Create a simple template to structure your preparation process

4. Practice identifying potential "crying wolf" scenarios in your industry

5. After each negotiation, conduct a brief review of what worked and what didn't

As Bruna, Brenda, and Milena have demonstrated, mastering negotiation in uncertain times isn't about having all the answers. It's about asking the right questions, preparing thoroughly, and developing the confidence to navigate whatever comes your way.

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